Economics Explored

The Global Economic Chessboard: Trump, Trade, and Transformation w/ Emmanuel Daniel

Episode Summary

Emmanuel Daniel, founder of the Asian Banker, explains how global economic dynamics are shifting. The discussion covers the decline of multilateral trade arrangements, the strategic blunders in U.S. tariff policy, why a BRICS currency won’t replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency, and the rise of domestic fintech infrastructures that challenge Western dominance in financial services. For example, the challenges Visa and Mastercard face in Indonesia are explored.

Episode Notes

Emmanuel Daniel, founder of the Asian Banker, explains how global economic dynamics are shifting. The discussion covers the decline of multilateral trade arrangements, the strategic blunders in U.S. tariff policy, why a BRICS currency won’t replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency, and the rise of domestic fintech infrastructures that challenge Western dominance in financial services. For example, the challenges Visa and Mastercard face in Indonesia are explored. 

Emmanuel Daniel, founder of the Asian Banker, explains how global economic dynamics are shifting. The discussion covers the decline of multilateral trade arrangements, the strategic blunders in U.S. tariff policy, why a BRICS currency won’t replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency, and the rise of domestic fintech infrastructures that challenge Western dominance in financial services. For example, the challenges Visa and Mastercard face in Indonesia are explored. 

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Timestamps

• Global Economic Trends and Trade Wars (0:00)
• Impact of Trump's Trade Policies on the US (3:11)
• Evolution of the US Economy and Services Industry (6:19)
• Concerns About US Recession and Consumption (11:53)
• Reactions from Exporting Countries (14:56)
• Challenges for US Corporations in Emerging Markets (22:37)
• BRICS and the Future of the US Dollar (27:55)
• Geopolitical Implications of Trade Policies (39:12)
• Long-Term Economic Trends and AI (39:33)
• Final Thoughts and Future Prospects (42:18)
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Takeaways

1. Capital Flows Over Trade: The U.S.'s remaining global leverage lies in capital flows—not trade—due to its deep, open financial markets and dominance in dollar-based transactions.
2. Tariff Tactics Are Backfiring: Trump’s tariff policies lack coherence and are harming U.S. markets and consumers. There's no clear playbook, only reactionary moves.
3. BRICS Currency Is a Mirage: Internal distrust among BRICS nations and incompatible fiscal policies make a unified currency unfeasible, at least in the near future.
4. Global Shift in Financial Services: Countries like Indonesia and India are creating their own payment systems, sidelining U.S. giants like Visa and MasterCard in favor of local fintech solutions. 
5. We’re in a New Multipolar Era: Similar to pre-WWI geopolitics, the world is entering a new phase of power realignment—this time driven by technology, information, and AI.

Links relevant to the conversation

About this episode’s guest Emmanuel Daniel:

https://www.emmanueldaniel.com/biography-and-contact/

Previous episode on real time payments featuring World Bank expert:

https://economicsexplored.com/2025/04/03/inside-project-fastt-real-time-payments-for-all-ep278/

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Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.