The governments of many countries have structural budget deficits, so even as their economies recover from the COVID-recession they are still running deficits. In many countries, the fundamental structure of the budget is bad. There is too much spending relative to revenue, even in normal or good times, not just in recession. In this episode we explore how economists can calculate structural budget balances. We look specifically at what the Australian Treasury does, given that a new Australian Budget came out last week.
The governments of many countries have structural budget deficits, so even as their economies recover from the COVID-recession they are still running deficits. In many countries, the fundamental structure of the budget is bad. There is too much spending relative to revenue, even in normal or good times, not just in recession. In this episode we explore how economists can calculate structural budget balances. We look specifically at what the Australian Treasury does, given that a new Australian Budget came out last week.
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Australian structural budget balance indicators available here:
https://budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs-3.pdf
Australian Treasury methodology for estimating structural budget balances:
IMF Fiscal Monitor which contains cyclically-adjusted budget balances (Tables A3 and A4):
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM
Media coverage of Australian budget:
IFS analysis of UK mini budget:
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-response
Thanks to Josh Crotts for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au.
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